Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.494733 13.451331 15.586778 18.083518 20.915279 24.019808 27.673246
2025-01-05 8.434295 11.092670 14.282690 18.359669 23.395365 29.372822 36.962451
2025-01-12 6.407799 9.331743 13.137921 18.377655 25.313994 34.082893 45.892131
2025-01-19 5.054038 8.058262 12.257714 18.418180 27.060018 38.563735 54.807949
2025-01-26 4.457576 7.669641 12.432882 19.790972 30.601557 45.587435 67.539516
2025-02-02 3.876346 7.164506 12.315578 20.657153 33.432992 51.790976 79.561125
2025-02-09 3.401857 6.723105 12.196874 21.450151 36.161432 57.984962 91.942259
2025-02-16 2.870006 6.072488 11.627276 21.426437 37.585536 62.307721 101.830280
2025-02-23 2.352642 5.339172 10.795232 20.839425 38.011029 65.085256 109.515583
2025-03-02 1.902680 4.637509 9.901511 20.010503 37.913937 66.976889 115.883637
2025-03-09 1.624788 4.224859 9.469058 19.923068 39.016788 70.802340 125.454201
2025-03-16 1.369564 3.804620 8.953588 19.606997 39.664989 73.887403 133.970162
2025-03-23 1.259968 3.703108 9.079143 20.552719 42.702880 81.263062 150.119369
2025-03-30 1.111211 3.475824 8.910776 20.905596 44.691614 86.994550 163.899581
2025-04-06 0.959752 3.205229 8.605408 20.940897 46.078640 91.760089 176.311394
2025-04-13 0.831768 2.964517 8.326729 20.991380 47.484665 96.628962 189.149334
2025-04-20 0.806671 3.009553 8.722048 22.527877 51.929676 107.235150 212.557167
2025-04-27 0.750883 2.950283 8.855212 23.496029 55.298540 116.043781 233.187992
2025-05-04 0.695854 2.879831 8.949124 24.381474 58.557340 124.815676 254.155057
2025-05-11 0.606694 2.674307 8.663352 24.355087 59.907023 130.048563 268.926628
2025-05-18 0.506018 2.397737 8.140408 23.699867 59.854987 132.572932 278.809912
2025-05-25 0.412307 2.112775 7.539957 22.774106 59.120769 133.697557 286.098035
2025-06-01 0.357545 1.957820 7.283571 22.676424 60.204702 138.466008 300.485500